Inner Demons of Republic Post GE2014

Pollsters have started early. The election commission has still not made any announcements regards General Election 2014. Some agencies also realize that much water will flow between now and the Polling day. Some early birds however have taken a plunge. Intresting facts seem to emerge from the excerises being Telecast and reported in Newspapers.

It is a forgone conclusion now that NDA led by BJP will be the largest alliance post polls. It will need a miracle of sorts for UPA to even achieve 200 Lok Sabha seats in 2014.It will need another miracle for NDA to forge alliance knowing it’s penchant for agonising allies in recent past.

Pundits ,pupils and economists will make us believe that the biggest challenge the new Government will face is financial in nature.None can deny the facts that populist policies and rheotric to it in buildup to election will be a hurdle for the new government. Harsh economical decisions need some consenseus among allies and it’s not easy as we have experienced. The would be Policy makers are watching outward for investment in Infrastructure ,Power and Manufacturing.

The bigger Demons  however lie inside.It is more likely that the main party of the new alliance in power will not have any representation of North East. The effort to understand this neglected reigon has been less and few by any Republic standards.Assam,Manipur and Nagaland are simmering if not boiling.Back channel negotition by Delhi have created no goodwill in the recent past. One does not even see a mention of reconcilation by the BJP in these regards. Ethnic conflict in Karbi Anglong, Kokrajhar has spread to some what  peaceful districts of GopalPara. At least four different ethnic groups are demanding statehood in Assam namely BodoLand,Dima-Hasao,Karbi Anglong and Kamatapur. BJP in some parts of Assam is viewed as a party supporting one ethnic community . Manipur has three ethnic divides with at least two having militant outfits.Here too the BJP is conceptualised  as patriachal to one section. The spill over of Assam and Manipur and demand of Greater Nagaland will be another out of horizon ask for the BJP and it’s allies. Gorkhaland  is another area of concern and utterances of Mr.Jaswant Singh  has not turned it into bed of roses for BJP if itseeks TMC as an alliance partner.

The most violent recent strikes by the Naxals has been in state controlled by BJP. The hot bed of Naxals are in areas of abundant matural resources which the BJP seems to be harping on as one of the keys of development. It does not need knowledge of social sceintist to explain that the issue regards alienation in these areas . BJP again is seen as a part of the opressive syatem.

 Discussion on Article 370  or it’s aboilition , it’s stand on AFSAPA being percieved as antagonist rather than a reconciler can  raise another fire ball .

Another day on preceived foreign policy of BJP

The 7 Crucial States

Pollsters have started early. The election commission has still not made any announcements regards General Election 2014. Some agencies also realize that much water will flow between now and the Polling day. Some early birds however have taken a plunge. Interesting facts seem to emerge from the exercises being Telecast and reported in Newspapers.

It is a forgone conclusion now that NDA led by BJP will be the largest alliance post polls. It will need a miracle of sorts for UPA to even achieve 200 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Most Congressmen realize the writing on the wall and the side effects are visible. Not nominating Rahul Gandhi as Prime Ministerial candidate ,support to the intrepid and incorrigible AAP in Delhi assembly are ample manifestations of the realization. The INC seems to have gone in rear guard mode of restricting further damage. The Congress seems nearly apologetic on all issues from Price Rise to Corruption .The Congress think tank tries to make the people believe that an introspection of sorts has been completed and the Party is ready to implement.Cynics however cite the numerous “Manthans and Chintans” leading to nowhere in recent past.

The NDA on it’s part seems to be in no mood to consolidate. 272+ notwithstanding even hardcore RSS realizes the fact that majority in Lok Sabha for NDA in present form is a mirage leave aside  for BJP alone. Another miracle though of lesser magnitude will be needed if the magic figure is to be attained by NDA. A bigger hurdle is the the antagonist approach and image of it’s Prime Ministerial candidate.The tag of non-secular on BJP is another issue which will time and again become a hurdle .

 Reports suggest that state by state analysis is being done by BJP on a fortnightly basis. 

The Samajwadi Party  under the leadership of Mr.Mulayam Singh Yadav is in a hurry to hand the UP platter by virtue of it’s governance. For some reasons the BSP is not biting the bait.It suits BJP the most.  Considering the importance of Uttar Pradesh ,the leader in charge Mr.Amit Shah has been given immense leverage and responsibility.It is another matter now that his style of functioning is being detested by state party leaders.

Bihar will be another big test for BJP. The infighting among it’s state leaders has become butt of jokes in political circles in Bihar.. Back channel talks between RJD and JDU had been reported but any alliance is a far fetched conclusion.

In Andhra Pradesh the situation is too fluid for BJP think tank to call.Both YSR Congress and TDP could be allies. It certainly will be a post poll alliance as BJP will never commit the folly of going with the lesser achiever. Mr.Rao of TRS can easily be cajoled to join NDA is known to BJP. It’s going alone can certainly mis fire in Assam as the votes will be divided in between BJP and AGP. However AGP can only make a dent if it gets it’s house together. Karnartaka will again be a tough nut to crack for BJP even with Yeddy back .The party seems to have lost a bit of credibility in the state.With strong entry of AAP in Delhi and Haryana both Congress and BJP have lost grounds.

These seven states will decide how BJP is able to cope up with realities of Power and Power sharing. Much will also depend on Mr.Narendra Modi speech writers who seem to be in a hurry. BJP media cell also needs to be subtle as their over the board campaigns seem to back fire.

Inner Demons 2014

One can tell easily when a wave precedes elections , Pundits contemplate too much in lack of a wave. However no one reads even the under currents and winds better than the poltical class. Even politicians with little or no mass following know the direction of flow as to their vicinity with the political leaders with some base.

The Congress knows well the writing on wall as do the people. So called  party Idealouges  and  TV channel favorites like Mani Shankar Aiyer, Shakeel Ahmad  are talking “mauvias avenir” and at times even advocating a five year Banwas.The Congress realising the upcoming upheaval has started taking rear guard actions like appointment of Sachin Pilot as Rajasthan Congress President. These actions are certainly with a view to stem the rot but the leadership also realises that such appointments will give results only in the long run and not in near future. It is now in a process of controlling the inner demons.

Congress leaders  shiver and sweats are in abundance with the thought of BJP gaining Powers at Delhi. The option of supporting AAP furitively is natural way out for Congress post realisation and estimation.

Cartoonists had a field day with the coercion support  by Congress to AAP in Delhi . The new party of course apologetically took the bait.  However the scenario remains fluid with AAP fighting it’s inner demons more than the BJP. AAP can be faulted of living in state of inconguity  as Peoples Movement believe in quantitative approach  ,rather than the tiring qualitative approach. The chaos ,ruckus  and hog of limelight worked wonders for AAP initally but Governance and adminstartion are never at ease with cacophony. 

Indian political parties espcially the novice know how to fetter away the goodwill in a fizzle. The melodarma of some rabble rousing members can reverse the spiral rise into spiral slide. Only few in BJP realize that inner demons of AAP is more threanting to the new born baby than the autoimmune injections of catigation.

Patience has never been a virtue with BJP and it’s supportes. Even the old guard opted for a 13 day government rather than have the gifted quality of Patience.The Modi army is devoid of this quality more . 272 + campagain is another demonstration of the virtue or lack of it. Some sections of BJP should realise that its inner demons can do more damage to it’s mission than AAP. It’s inability to take along allies like Shiv Sena ,Assam Gana Parishad is more crucial to it’s schemes than castigating a near self destructive AAP.

So much for the inner Demons..

Political Sat Sher

बदल रही हैं  फ़िज़ा ,टूट रहे चिलमन  और  झुक रहां हैं  आसमान ,,
              फिर भी, सहमा हैं बदर , ठहरी हैं बयारें और ,कितने  दमिनियों कि जान।   -Nirbahaya

 दो  लब्ज़ों का  ही हैं ये सारा फ़साना
एक  कि माफ़ी ,दूजे का  बरगलाना    -BJP and INC

  बयाँ  क्या  करुँ  अपनी नज़्म का ,

     दुआ, न  लगे   नासूर ज़ख्म सा।    _self

              

शिकवा किससे करें , फरमान ऐ मुरकबा का

मय्यत ख्वाइसो  की  औ अरमान मुजतबा सा   -Dr.ManMohan Singh 

Murqaba-watch;; Mujtaba--the great unifier




दास्ताँ  ऐ बयाँ गैर ,हैं  शुरूर  आज का
नुक्ता चिनी  रब्बा खैर , न हो  फितूर आप  का    -AAP


हुक्म की बयारें हैं तर्रनुम गुनगुनाइए

मुअतला से परेशान हैं फ़ारिग हो आइये   Dr.Visaws

हर ज़ुल्म का एक ही फ़साना है, इंसाफ़ तो बस गाना बजाना है ;;

बदज़बानी का खूबशूरत तराना हैं,आपकी पेचिस में कुछ शायराना हैं   Dr.Viswas

No Kudos To ISRO

courtsy-ISRO

Not much is being harped upon success of GSLV-D5 by ISRO and rightly so.It is a step forward 

after many steps back. It is not still commercially viable i.e. no agency or country will 

put it's money on it's satellite launch by GSLV.  Minimum of three more successful 

GSLV launches can only put ISRO as a front runner.

             A cryogenic rocket engine is an engine  that uses cryogenic fuel  , that is, its 

fuel or oxidizer (or both) are gases liquefied and stored at very low temperatures

to cool the propellants down to sub zero temperatures , converting them to liqiud 

form.

The cryogenic rocket engine provides more thrust than conventional liquid rocket  engines but the fuel and oxidizer needs to be super cooled in order to keep them in  a liquid state.

There is also a difference between the PSLV and GSLV in terms of the rocket itself. The PSLV has 4 stages that alternate between solid and liquid fuels while the GSLV has three stages with the only the first stage having solid fuel.

Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (abbreviated as GSLV)

launch its satellites indigenously without dependence on foreign aid. GSLV has 

attempted eight launches to date, since its first launch in 2001 . Three launches have 

been successful, four have failed, and one was a partial failure, placing the satellite 

into an unplanned, but recoverable, orbit. The most recent flight, GSLV-D5 was 

launched successfully on 5 January 2014 during its second attempt.

Two launches in 2010 both failed; the first, in April, was the first flight of the GSLV 

Mk.II, with an Indian-developed third stage engine replacing the Russian engine used 

on earlier flights. The third stage failed to ignite. The next launch, in December, used 

the Russian engine, however the vehicle went out of control during first stage flight 

and was destroyed by range safety.

Problems with the connectors had occurred before – including one snapping in 

Russian built interstage adaptor  during the launch of INSAT-4CR which was 

responsible for the underperformance of that launch by  GSLV-F04. .

The  probable success rate of GSLV is put to be 0.29 (29%) by NASA.

Melodrame De AAP

                A month go people on the streets were more cynical about the emergence of “AAP” than the media.How the thinking changes can be gauged  easily today. The prodigal is being castigated in media on basis of square feet reqired for dwellings and use of official vehicle or vehicle if any. Popular opinion is inherently hysteria prone. One judged harshly now can seek consolation & one on a popular-opinion high should be careful. The short time of it’s honeymoon with media though has surprised many.

People are wise enough to realize that AAP cannot reduce electric bills, provide clean water to all and bring Lokpal at hat drop. They have taken much worse acts on Manifestos in stride. Judgments from” people will be based only on the manner of accessibility, transparency and ability to carry  along after EUPHORIA .The shrwed leadership core of AAP recognizes this.

The leadership also recognizes that  the problem lies within, of the inner demons. Consider the new found intoxicant’s effect on the cadres. “Power certainly degrades thinking, vision if not ruin it.” The effects showed up on allotment of Ministeral berths ,victory processions and will raise it’s ugly head again. One has to bear in mind that cleansing will continue.

The biggest challenge also stems from the euphoria created. ChandraGupta Maurya sans Chankya tried many a things at a go.  The essence of first sermon was based on principle of consolidation and concentration (not losing the focus). AAP seems to do encore .How the idealouge of AAP has agreed on fighting more than 200 seats surprises even their own supporters. Though scorn on conventions have been AAP’s biggest asset so far but this is taking too much too far.

Limiting itself to a couple of state assembly elections and Lok Sabha seats in only those pockets or Urban areas may be a better strategy. One can not forget that the old guards of present system are still lurching and surging. These  old guards have greater chance to fail further and loose credibility if left to themselves. Better option can be to give these old hands of present order to fall deeper into pits and bid for time.

Fruits of Forbiddance

Finally AAP is saddled with power in Delhi. It is another matter that how much of the reins is in its own  hands. Debates  will continue on usage of square feet ,use of official vehicles, reasons of indisposition of  CMs. Ironically AAP can not be accused of not fuelling these debates. Media as always is fanatic on lapping new ideas and experiments and of course overkills. The  focus upon success of the experiment is lost in the din in this era de comminque.

Consider the stakes, the hopes  placed by people on an experiment.  The biggest hope of people who feel disenchanted in a system is power sharing. Can one deny the fact that nepotism, lack of inner democracy, use of muscle and money power has eroded the credibility of political parties. It has resulted an army of cynics on every sphere of life. The  people seem to get  a scent of participatory democracy and can one have the courage or morality to deny this.

One must be prepared for the strike by old gaurd. It has it’s fangs everywhere ,even in our so called and self righteous media. Means and methods of distractions has started.

Lord forbid ,if the experiment fails . The swarming army of cynics will rise. The concept of innovation and experiment will take a back seat. The biggest sufferer  of this will be the youth and exodus of talent will be spiral. The old guard political system will treat the citizens in much less dignified way than ever in Independent India.

Many of the people movement groups did not  wish this experiment to occur. Some brave hearts got over the fear of failure. Unknowingly they also hijacked the credibility of People Movement groups as a whole. If these brave hearts succeed the usher of new dawn is on horizon ,if they fail the Gennext loses decades...

मुराद ऐ नाचीज़ ,आप की मुश्किलात बढे ;; रब्बा खैर बाकी और मंज़िलें जितना आप चढ़ें। 

Murad -e nacheez aap ki mushkilat badhe::rabba khair baki aur manzilen jitna app chadhen

MMS--Baki Bakwas

Miles of columns and days of TV debate has been put to use on dissection,analysis of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh's Press conference since yesterday.Nearly all of it has been focused around failures and missed opportunities.He has been ridiculed by Media Kangaroo courts. The incumbent Prime Minister has become butt of jokes in social media.Even couplets of Bahadur Shah regards "do gaz Zameen" has been hinted by Tweeps. Political obituaries have been published.

The Press Conference of the Prime Minister devoid of humor was badly scripted too. Ducks like me realize that in such press conferences ,the  questionnaires are sometimes precooked and leaked to some media persons with a view to encourage them to focus on predetermined issues.With all due respect to PM's media cell ,preempting of questions regards Mr.Modi was misplaced or not given a thought. of course Dr.Singh did not make things easy for him by blowing the wolf whistle on "Disaster in offing".

Some facts need to be seen in the context of his desire not to be UPA's candidate for Prime Minister in 2014. People who castigate him deliberately fail to remember that he was the force behind liberalization.During the severe economic crisis in 1991,the man carried out several structural reforms that took Indian economy to a new path. The path breaking over ,subsequent Governments did toe the line for next some years. Leaders became champions and bloated in glory and the prime mover was pushed in back room of Politics.

How many office bearers in Indain democracy can be candid enough to admit their failures. Corruption,price rise and inability to generate employment have been cited as people's bete noire as Dr.Singh's performance is judged .The times we live in has been disregarded in the cacophony.One must realize Corruption in public offices is a reflection of society and more to curb it has been done in last some years than since independence. The rot of corruption and nepotism which flows in our blood has become too thick .In this age when revolution die ,there is no quick cure. Consider the political compulsions of Dr.Singh and he does not come out that bad.However by his own liking and standards ,he has failed on this account.

 One should realize that India is not an isolated economy and one also tends to forget that Dr.Singh had also a finance minister known for his left leanings for nearly three years. The shield of near Depression of 2006-2008 was made possible only by PM's acumen. One must not forget that some earlier Finance ministers nearly gave it away in lesser conditions.

The European depression was felt more in India but Can Liberalization leave it's fangs behind.The 2G or second generation of reforms when ushered in more developed countries brings more heart breaks and disenchantment. Countries facing challenges of this irreversible process of Globalization are facing even civil strife a ka Ukraine,Thailand.It's too credit of ManMohan Singh that it looks somewhat seamless to us.

Media managers of INC and PMO seem to either overlook these facts or are not savvy enough to harp on it.  

शिकवा किससे करें , फरमान ऐ मुरकबा का

मय्यत ख्वाइसो  की  औ अरमान मुजतबा सा..

murqaba-- watch over

mujtaba--the great unifier 

History is a faulty art , seldom states the mental age we live in. Akbar is praised more than Sher Shah